Regardless of whether we still want to talk about it, COVID-19 is on the rise again in South Carolina and Lexington County.

That’s what Dr. Jonathan Knoche, a medical consultant with the state Department of Health and Environmental Control, told the Chronicle as he helped contextualize COVID numbers acquired by the paper from May through August.

From May 6 to June 24, weekly hospital admissions of confirmed COVID patients — the metric now used to set warning levels for the virus from low to medium to high by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — mostly went down in the state, lowering from 88 to 56 by June 24.

But since then, the state has mostly seen a sharp increase, hitting 102 on July 22, 107 on July 29, 161 on Aug. 5 and 246 on Aug. 12 and 19.

“We've kind of been at a generally low level of circulation in the community, but over the course of the last month and a half or so we're starting to see the number of hospitalizations go back up and the percentage of [emergency department] visits due to COVID also increasing,” Knoche said. “For July 1, that week, the percentage of ED visits due to COVID was 0.5%. And for the week of Aug. 19, that weekly percentage of ED visits was 3%. So that's six times as many.”

He noted that the current numbers aren’t terrible — there were 793 people admitted to hospitals  in the state with COVID the week of Dec. 31, 2022, he cited as an example of how bad it’s been in the past — but people should still be concerned and take caution.

The fall and the holidays have seen a pattern of spikes, so the numbers could continue to rise.

“That's why you're hearing public health professionals, physicians, people's primary care doctors really strongly recommending that people stay up to date with their vaccines,” Knoche said. “Because the time that people need it is when they're traveling, when they're getting together with their loved ones during Thanksgiving and over Christmas. Those holidays, those family gatherings and travel are when you see opportunity for these viruses to spread.”

While there are a variety of factors that are likely playing into the rise in COVID cases — recent high temperatures pushing people to congregate inside, for instance — Knoche emphasized that the expected mid-September recommendation of a new COVID vaccine that protects against the XBB.1.5 Omicron subvariant could be a particular help, as the virus’ mutation could be part of what is driving the increase in hospitalizations, particularly when it comes to people who are getting COVID again.

He added that typical good habits when it comes to respiratory illness also help stem the spread, including washing hands regularly, covering coughs and sneezes and not going into school or work if you are ill.

Case numbers shared by DHEC for Lexington County and neighboring Richland County fall in line with the rise in COVID statewide.

In Lexington, there were 106 new COVID cases on May 6, with that number mostly going down each week through July 1, when the county had 58. The county has since seen sharp increases, hitting 112 on July 22, 142 on July 29, 240 on Aug. 5, 293 on Aug. 12, 400 on Aug. 19 and 608 on Aug. 26.

Richland saw much the same arc during that time, going from 148 on May 6 to 93 on June 24, and then climbing to 155 on July 22, 185 on July 29, 318 on Aug. 5, 496 on Aug. 12, 563 on Aug. 19 and 898 on Aug. 23.

Knoche cautioned that these numbers might actually be higher than what’s been reported, as the results of at-home tests often don’t make it to DHEC.

Lexington County saw a total of eight COVID deaths between May and Aug. 19, he said.

Weekly hospital admission figures from May through August weren’t immediately available, but both counties saw a spike recently.

In both counties, there were 38 new patients with confirmed COVID admitted to local hospitals in the week leading up to Aug. 12, a 65.2% increase from the previous week, before dropping slightly to 37 in the week leading up to Aug. 19.

That Aug. 12 increase is sharper than the nationwide increase during the same stretch, which was 21%, as 12,613 new confirmed COVID patients were admitted to hospitals throughout the U.S.

The hospitalization numbers are still well below the threshold to raise the county’s Hospital Admissions Level from low to medium, which is 10 admissions per 100,000 people. As of Aug. 19, the latest date for which the levels were updated, the 37 cases in the Lexington area equated to 4.8 admissions per 100,000 people.

Lexington Medical Center, the 607-bed teaching hospital in West Columbia, told the Chronicle it has seen a recent spike in COVID patients, going from a census of nine patients with the virus the week of Aug. 20 to 26 on Aug. 28.

Knoche said that while the recent rise in COVID represents a particular threat to those who are elderly or immunocompromised, getting this message through to the public can be difficult at this point.

“I think that there's a significant amount of fatigue related to hearing about COVID,” he said. “And I get it. I've also been working on this as the beginning of the pandemic, and sometimes you're tired of working on it and trying to say the same thing and message it. But it doesn't change the fact that it's still here. It doesn't change the fact that it's still harming people. And that won't change the fact that we're still going to try our best to educate people about the risks and and the way to reduce those risks by being vaccinated and practicing good health practices.”