Washington Watch

The Energy Information Administration is the authoritative government bureaucracy for energy data.

However, EIA forecasts are given more credibility than they deserve.

EIA revises its forecasts so when the date arrives, they look pretty close.

Back in 2010 the forecasts for 2020 were way off, and anyone depending on them for their planning was seriously misled.

In 2010 EIA projected the US would be producing 6 million barrels of oil a day and priced about $100 a barrel.

Now in 2020 oil productions levels are approaching 13 million barrels, not 6.

EIA said CO2 emissions would be up when in fact they are down.

Of course, natural gas production is way above EIA 2010 projections and has replaced coal as the largest producer of electricity as well as being exported.

The Department of Defense also made terrible energy forecasts.

DOD’s experts said by 2020 major cities would be underwater, there would be conflicts due to dwindling energy supplies and there would be widespread drought in North America and Europe. Nothing in DOD’s predictions happened.

All this lousy forecasting doesn’t have too much effect on consumer actions, but it gives politicians the excuse to enhance, expand and entrench their power to tinker in the economy. Currently the always-bad environment forecasts of doomsday are having their influence on political policy.

Mr. Clarkson is an energy expert and CEO of Resource Supply Management.